All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
Crown Point Invitational |
Jack Bransford Classic |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Bob Thomas Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Invitational |
Duneland Athletic Conference |
Hebron Sectional |
Crown Point Regional |
New Prairie Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
8/15 |
8/21 |
8/28 |
9/4 |
9/11 |
9/18 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
10/30 |
| Team Rating |
511 |
410 |
388 |
472 |
449 |
764 |
513 |
987 |
497 |
646 |
585 |
602 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
410 |
388 |
439 |
449 |
750 |
483 |
511 |
454 |
570 |
585 |
602 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Crown Point Invitational |
Jack Bransford Classic |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Bob Thomas Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Invitational |
Duneland Athletic Conference |
Hebron Sectional |
Crown Point Regional |
New Prairie Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 114 |
Caitlyn Derwinski |
12 |
19:51 |
20:08 |
20:09 |
19:43 |
20:19 |
22:12 |
20:10 |
|
19:53 |
20:26 |
20:03 |
19:50 |
19:42 |
| 261 |
Destiny Lopez |
10 |
20:37 |
20:17 |
20:10 |
|
20:40 |
21:43 |
20:34 |
|
20:21 |
20:36 |
20:46 |
20:38 |
|
| 325 |
Elli Pycraft |
10 |
20:53 |
20:31 |
20:02 |
20:29 |
19:54 |
21:38 |
20:38 |
|
|
|
21:14 |
22:14 |
|
| 353 |
Nadia Brumbaugh |
10 |
21:03 |
20:56 |
20:53 |
21:05 |
21:01 |
21:41 |
20:39 |
|
20:51 |
21:15 |
21:02 |
21:09 |
|
| 577 |
Reilly Lustina |
10 |
21:42 |
20:34 |
20:39 |
20:57 |
21:07 |
|
|
|
21:36 |
22:06 |
22:21 |
23:20 |
|
| 663 |
Jordan Siminski |
11 |
21:57 |
22:46 |
21:16 |
21:57 |
23:57 |
21:33 |
22:13 |
22:13 |
21:06 |
22:09 |
|
21:45 |
|
| 716 |
Brianne Eaton |
12 |
22:06 |
21:30 |
21:57 |
21:54 |
22:09 |
22:12 |
22:19 |
|
22:17 |
|
|
|
|
| 824 |
Jane Myres |
9 |
22:20 |
22:48 |
22:49 |
22:14 |
22:18 |
21:57 |
22:26 |
22:33 |
22:07 |
22:16 |
|
|
|
| 861 |
Lilia Hacker |
10 |
22:24 |
|
21:41 |
21:11 |
21:53 |
22:41 |
22:22 |
22:38 |
21:55 |
|
23:15 |
23:21 |
|
| 883 |
Samantha Dorsch |
9 |
22:27 |
22:49 |
22:51 |
22:11 |
22:12 |
21:56 |
22:23 |
22:26 |
22:43 |
|
22:41 |
|
|
| 898 |
Natalee Pugh |
9 |
22:28 |
23:32 |
23:27 |
22:02 |
21:55 |
22:05 |
22:43 |
22:27 |
22:32 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,017 |
Melaina Adamovic |
10 |
22:43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22:43 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,120 |
Rhena Kiger |
12 |
22:56 |
|
22:48 |
21:10 |
|
|
|
23:16 |
24:05 |
22:35 |
|
|
|
| 1,166 |
Brianna Hulen |
10 |
23:03 |
22:29 |
24:06 |
22:36 |
22:30 |
23:19 |
22:59 |
22:53 |
23:54 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,257 |
Nora Carpenter |
11 |
23:14 |
22:54 |
|
22:57 |
25:01 |
22:37 |
22:58 |
23:30 |
23:31 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,291 |
Catie Ingoldsby |
11 |
23:18 |
22:06 |
22:23 |
|
23:16 |
23:08 |
23:32 |
24:25 |
23:21 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,293 |
Camdyn Gliem |
11 |
23:18 |
24:49 |
|
24:15 |
23:45 |
23:20 |
23:02 |
22:41 |
23:06 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,341 |
Hannah Flewelling |
11 |
23:24 |
24:02 |
23:30 |
|
23:54 |
23:21 |
22:36 |
23:32 |
23:18 |
|
|
|
|
|
Emily McCallister |
12 |
23:42 |
23:19 |
24:03 |
23:31 |
23:22 |
23:07 |
25:09 |
23:30 |
24:25 |
|
|
|
|
|
Peyton Bishop |
9 |
23:42 |
24:05 |
23:21 |
|
24:09 |
23:39 |
23:45 |
23:35 |
23:37 |
|
|
|
|
|
Helena Grafton |
11 |
23:46 |
23:23 |
23:29 |
23:43 |
24:47 |
24:16 |
23:23 |
24:00 |
23:31 |
|
|
|
|
|
Mikayla Vandergast |
9 |
24:01 |
|
23:31 |
26:09 |
23:30 |
23:59 |
24:06 |
23:09 |
26:12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Haley Galocy |
10 |
24:08 |
24:30 |
23:41 |
|
|
25:18 |
24:33 |
23:50 |
23:42 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cadence Burnett |
9 |
24:18 |
24:42 |
25:03 |
24:28 |
23:46 |
23:43 |
24:09 |
|
24:53 |
|
|
|
|
|
Hailey Gross |
10 |
24:38 |
21:43 |
24:54 |
|
25:31 |
25:14 |
24:43 |
24:31 |
24:24 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
8.1 |
248 |
|
0.0 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
5.7 |
11.2 |
19.4 |
21.4 |
15.9 |
11.1 |
6.8 |
3.6 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
2.2 |
68 |
5.9 |
64.7 |
29.2 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.3 |
42 |
73.8 |
26.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caitlyn Derwinski |
59.8% |
90.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
59.8% |
59.8% |
| Destiny Lopez |
0.3% |
124.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caitlyn Derwinski |
100% |
18.5 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Destiny Lopez |
100% |
51.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Elli Pycraft |
100% |
66.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Nadia Brumbaugh |
100% |
75.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Reilly Lustina |
100% |
115.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Jordan Siminski |
100% |
127.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.8% |
| Lilia Hacker |
100% |
143.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
89.8% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caitlyn Derwinski |
100% |
2.4 |
|
39.3 |
29.3 |
16.9 |
7.0 |
3.8 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Destiny Lopez |
100% |
9.8 |
|
|
0.5 |
2.1 |
4.5 |
6.6 |
7.9 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
11.4 |
11.5 |
10.2 |
8.2 |
6.6 |
4.6 |
3.3 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Elli Pycraft |
100% |
13.7 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
5.1 |
7.1 |
9.2 |
10.6 |
11.4 |
11.3 |
9.9 |
8.3 |
6.1 |
4.3 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Nadia Brumbaugh |
100% |
16.1 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
4.7 |
6.9 |
8.4 |
10.0 |
11.3 |
11.2 |
10.8 |
9.2 |
6.5 |
4.4 |
3.4 |
2.6 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Reilly Lustina |
100% |
25.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
3.7 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
7.7 |
9.4 |
11.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Jordan Siminski |
100% |
27.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
4.2 |
5.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Lilia Hacker |
100% |
33.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caitlyn Derwinski |
2.2 |
|
41.8 |
35.0 |
18.0 |
4.2 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Destiny Lopez |
6.1 |
|
|
0.8 |
4.5 |
16.0 |
26.1 |
26.2 |
15.5 |
7.2 |
2.6 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Elli Pycraft |
8.2 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
2.3 |
6.7 |
14.8 |
22.2 |
23.5 |
17.0 |
9.0 |
2.9 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nadia Brumbaugh |
9.4 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
5.2 |
11.9 |
19.9 |
24.9 |
21.2 |
9.9 |
3.5 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Reilly Lustina |
13.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
11.2 |
18.2 |
22.9 |
22.6 |
12.9 |
5.4 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
| Jordan Siminski |
15.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
5.6 |
10.6 |
18.6 |
25.9 |
19.1 |
9.7 |
4.8 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
| Lilia Hacker |
19.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
3.1 |
10.4 |
16.2 |
18.7 |
16.4 |
11.8 |
9.4 |
5.9 |
4.3 |
1.4 |
|
